Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
